In 1965, shell introduced a new system called unified planning machinery upm to provide planning details for the whole chain of activityfrom moving oil from the ground, to the tanker. Scenario planning example main topic and details model this scenario planning example can be used in many situations. The dramatic financial effects of these changes led at least one organization, royal dutch shell, implementing scenario planning. Building, creatively, on 30 years of shell global scenarios. Scope definition, project success, preproject planning, project processes, industry practice 1.
Sharing a shell lesson plan ideas lesson planning, plans. Scenario planning has been used by some of the worlds largest corporations, including royal dutch shell, motorola, disney and accenture. Detailed planning for tendering purposes and the preparation of construction needs to be conducted through brainstorming sessions among the planning team. Scenario planning as a business tool which is aim to help organizations make right decisions, reduce risk, save time and maximum profit. Shell, emphasized that scenarios are a vehicle for the strategic conversations that are vital in making better strategic decisions. Shell uses scenarios to develop business strategies, to identify investment opportunities and to prepare for. Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for. Scenario planning example this wonderful scenario planning example presented below is available to download and customize for your own use.
The basis of scenario planning scenario planning can be defined as the process of creating vivid mental pictures of the potential. It was then that pierre wack, the founding father of the shell scenario practice, pioneered scenarios that included the possibility of a drastic shift of power to opec and a tightening of crude oil supply. Scenarios provide an overall picture of the environment and highlight the interactions among several trends and events in the future 24. National planning scenarios fact sheet femas mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards. The mss must further the objectives of planning in victoria and contain. The scenarios team has produced a joint study with the development research centre drc of chinas state council to examine how natural gas could evolve as a mainstream energy source in china natural gas is the ideal alternative to coal, as it is cleaner, more efficient and easier to transport and store. Concept selection for hydrocarbon field development planning. Development of the national planning scenarios in november 2003, the homeland security council hsc and dhs convened an interagency scenario working group swg.
Jun 24, 2015 sharing a shell lesson plan ideas lesson planning, plans, story. Angus gillespie, vp co2 shell, shows how shell has been developing scenarios to explore the future since the early 1970s and using them to allow leaders make better business decisions. The basics of project planning introduction before commencement of any project, the first thing that we need to do is project planning. At shell, scenarios have played a particularly important role in. In the 1960s, general electric and royal dutch shell introduced scenario techniques in their corporate planning procedures and in the 1970s scenarios achieved prominence in speculations about the future of society, the economy and the environment. Shell energy scenarios to 2050 shell global shell global. In a world that changes too rapidly for prediction to be accurate, scenarios are gaining credibility as effective tools to prepare for an uncertain future, alter mental models, test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment 5. The scenarios are planning tools and are representative of the range of potential terrorist attacks and natural disasters and the. For scenarios to be truly useful learning and planning tools, they must teach lessons that are highly relevant to the companys decision makers. Following a period in which scenario development was an episodic activity, shell fully integrated scenarios into their strategic planning cycle in the early 1980s. The planning policies and process united states fish and. Two things lay behind its rapid growth in the 1970s. However, energy efficiency measures, made before the recession and stimulated as part of economic recovery plans, will reduce the energy or carbon intensity of. Shell the organization that has perhaps done most to popularize scenario planning s use jefferson, 2012 jefferson, 2014 that scenario planning was originally conceived of as a tool for.
But shellstyle scenario planning has never really been about predicting the future. Effective network planning and design bucaro techelp. Oil and gas exploration and exploitation require a large amount of economical resources mainly in offshore environments thus, field development planning has the main objective of maxi mizing the revenue for a given investment, this is maxi mizing the utility index ui defined as ui npvnpi. Shell oil continues to be the leader in scenario planning, with a specific eye toward the impact of oil on our society, economy, and environment. Section 12a1 of the planning and environment act 1987 the act requires every municipal council which is a planning authority to prepare an mss. Integrating scenarios into strategic planning at royal dutch shell article pdf available in strategy and leadership 203. The planning policy provides guidance, systematic direction, and minimum. The objective was to develop the minimum number of representative scenarios required to develop and test the range of required prevention, protection, response, and recovery resources. Scenario planning a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes scenarios. Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches 223 analysis 1987 and 1995 in france, garrett 1966 in the usa and robertson 1983 in the uk ratcliffe, 1999. Scenario planning consists of the process through which scenarios are developed and how they are used to inform strategic planning. Olubiyi department of mathematical sciences, faculty of science, university of adoekiti, ekiti state, nigeria. As we all know, shell has a long history in scenario planning, going back to the early seventies.
As part of their strategic planning process, major corporations and research firms often develop and share future scenarios specific to an industrys future or to address major global problems. The planning policies and process 21 introduction this chapter explains the planning policies and planning steps in developing the ccp. It identifies some significant events, the main actors and their motivations, and it conveys how the world functions. Free scenario planning examples download edrawsoft. Fast fashion retailers are no longer fast enough, while traditional retailers and department stores struggle to be agile enough to respond to customer demands. In this presentation shell, shell group and royal dutch shell are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to royal dutch shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Why scenario analysis matters and how to make it work for you. It comprises an mss and specific local planning policies.
Scenario planning a tool for navigating strategic risk. Building economic competitiveness in rural regions and small communities march 25, 20 presenter. The federal interagency community has developed 15 allhazards planning scenarios the national planning scenarios or scenarios for use in national, federal, state, and local homeland security preparedness activities. You can easily change the number of the list shapes through edraw. In many scenario planning projects, creating a more flexible and more open learning environment is a major objective of the project. Moreover, scenario planning presents all complex elements together into. You can also incorporate the results of scenario planning into your strategy formulation and implementation. Paper prepared for the 24th iaee conference, washington d.
Integrating scenarios into strategic planning at royal dutch shell. Application of network analysis to project management. After reading the three books about scenario planning scenario planning. Of the major oil companies, only shell was prepared emotionally for the change. Jun 10, 2015 meanwhile, shell has ridden through the last 50 years, including the major oil embargo of october 1973, and currently looks to be in a stronger position than its peers. Maintenance planning and scheduling exists because it gives value to those businesses that use physical assets, such as plant, equipment, machinery, facilities and infrastructure, in providing their product to paying customers. Pierre wack used scenario planning to help evaluate events that may affect the price of oil. For almost half a century, shell scenarios have helped us to gain a deeper understanding of global developments and the worlds energy supply, use and needs.
Scenario planning appears to have utility in planning for the future. The value planning and scheduling contributes is by. Generating insights by creating a small set of scenarios for an organizations future environment that are. With his colleagues and successors at shell s group planning department, he designed and refined this important business tool, in effect serving as the chief analyst of shell s version of her majestys secret service. Strategic planning for the oil and gas industry craig robinson ba hons mba phd fhea craig robinson leads the strategy teaching team and is a senior teaching fellow at edinburgh business school. Three decades of scenario planning in shell international. Likewise, the words we, us and our are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence the original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers. Scenario planning in shell free download as powerpoint presentation.
Shell upstream americas restricted control framework glossary barriers 1 barrier a risk control or a recovery measure. Pierre wack, who died in 1997, was the leader of the royal dutch shell group of companies elite londonbased scenario team. As we reflect on these decades of scenario work and remember the many. Plotting your scenarios jay ogilvy and peter schwartz scenarios are narratives of alternative environments in which todays decisions may be played. In short, it is a perfect tool for todays increasingly uncertain and volatile world. The inputs and outputs of the planning process are shown in figure 3. Benefits of scenario planning and systems thinking. Shell scenarios since the 1970s have helped us understand how the world and its energy system could evolve in decades to come.
From a competitive standpoint, if your competitors are not doing this kind of planning, you will be prepared, when they are not, just as was true for shell oil in 1973. It complements and can replace the introduction to scenario plann. Christie oostema, planning director, envision utah. Planning inputs and outputs planning requires a rigorous effort by the planning team. Scenario and contingency planning related topics description methodology common uses crisis management disaster recovery groupthink realoptions analysis simulation models scenario planning allows executives to explore and prepare for several alternative futures. Scenario planning is a good way to question the future 23. The shell scenarios team brings together experts from an array of disciplines to understand versions of the future.
Royal dutch shell scenario planning free pdf ebook. If you continue browsing the site, you agree to the use of cookies on this website. Ignoring amazon may be costing fashion retailers dearly. The thesis is about scenario planning which was an unknown method for me. In 1965 royal dutch shell put into service what it called the unified planning machinery upm, a computerdriven system meant to bring more discipline to the companys cash flow planning. National planning scenarios for official use only version 20.
I use the collective expression shell for convenience when referring to the companies of the royal dutchshell group in general, or when no. Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible longterm plans. He runs oncampus strategic planning and competitive strategy seminars, and is the examiner for strategic planning and competitive strategy. Its value lies in how scenarios are embedded inand provide vital links. This animated video can be used to help an audience understand what scenario planning is. Any reasonable project manager certainly understands importance of planning a project well. Shell background 7493 grundy background 451 shell longterm energy scenarios shell energy scenarios to 2050. Competence front line operational hsse critical activities and planning supervisory hsse critical activities. The homeland security council compressed the 15 national planning scenarios into 8 key scenario sets in october 2007 to integrate planning for like events and to conduct crosscutting capability development.
Pdf integrating scenarios into strategic planning at. Below are summaries of the key points in the overview page. Scenario planning nancy pridal pam nienaber dan schaecher slideshare uses cookies to improve functionality and performance, and to provide you with relevant advertising. Royal dutch shell has been the poster child of success using scenario planning to address the instability and uncertainty during the 1973 oil crisis. Jun 22, 2017 communities constantly evolve and change in response to social, political, economic, technological and environmental forces.
Providing insight for impact scenario planning is a management tool that is designed to allow organizations to evaluate the efficacy of strategies, tactics, and plans under a range of possible future environments. Though the aims of organisations who adopt the scenario planning are the same, there are many inherent difficulties for organisations of differing sizes in implementing scenario planning for the first time. Scribd is the worlds largest social reading and publishing site. Bp, shell and statoil scenario practices navincerta.
Three years ago, we made public our shell energy scenarios to 2050. A scenariobased approach to strategic planning hhl center for approach to strategic planning can serve as an innovative management tool in scenario planning was first introduced in the 1970s at royal dutch shell. Planning it is about sequencing project activities and milestones into a sensible and logical order it involves linking activities to form a project network to show how different activities are related to each other one requirement is to establish the timing and resources. A scenario is a story that describes a possible future. The network planning and design methodology describes a process with nine specific steps and a sequence for those activities. In retrospect, it is not clear that shells use of scenario planning gave the company any significant long term business advantages but this could be because too much dependence was given to this management tool alone. Royal dutch shell scenario planning free pdf ebooks. It is an engineering life cycle that supports technical initiatives such as windows migration, ip telephony and wireless design. He helped managers imagine the decisions they might have to make. Introduction significant decisions are made by the project team during the early planning phase of capital facility project developments. Urban planning system 44 implementation of spatial planning 1. Ppt scenario planning powerpoint presentation free to. Scenario planning framework and success factors ross dawson. A planning algorithm is complete if a solution can be found whenever one actually exists a planning algorithm is strictly complete if all solutions are included in the search space optimality a planning algorithm is optimal if the order in which solutions are found is consistent with some measure of plan quality.
22 578 1283 1046 637 1405 848 956 974 109 937 715 683 1507 469 1505 278 1381 1089 455 408 201 1145 1292 653 160 1000 379 370 341